Getting a Grip on Global Warming -- Lester Brown's Plan B
Introduction by Ian McPherson "Saving the planet is not a spectator sport" -- Lester Brown On July 9, Lester Brown, President of the Earth Policy Institute, delivered the keynote address to the Annual Gathering of Friends 2004, at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. In his address, Lester outlined the growing threat that humanity faces, due to climate change (rising temperatures) and water depletion (falling water tables).As Lester so convincingly argues, recent worldwide grain harvest shortfalls will quickly lead to rising food prices and political and social instability, in both industrialised and developing nations, unless we act now to stabilise world population and the environment. His recommendations include dramatically raising water productivity, putting the brakes on population growth -- sooner rather than later -- and reducing carbon emissions by 50% in the next decade. Following are links to the three parts of Lester's keynote address (ADSL or broadband connection recommended). Whatever you do, don't miss the Q&A, which delves into foreign policy, GM crops, oil depletion, birth control and energy-efficient transport in China :) I would also like to suggest that NetNacs! readers take a look at Lester's recent book, Plan B: Rescuing a Planet under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble, which covers the topics in depth and formulates a detailed plan for addressing these issues. It is available for sale as a hardback (US$28), paperback (US$16), or can be downloaded or read in PDF or HTML formats, at no cost, from the Earth Policy Institute. To download the free PDFs, please visit the Earth Policy Institute. Now ... a look at Plan B, Lester's new book ... in HTML ... including links to the content Below I have laid out a guide to the contents of Plan B (in HTML), which includes links to the topic pages, plus a quote from each of the introduction pages from that section of the book. This should give you a good idea what you're looking at. If there is any topic you are particularly drawn to, please click the link and the page will load in a new window. This is one of the most comprehensive, timely and important works I have read this year, and I recommend it without reservation. I also believe, without a doubt, that the Washington Post was correct, when it called Lester Brown ""one of the world's most influential thinkers". Reading (and listening to) his work was an inspiration and an education for me. Acknowledgements I would like to thank Lester Brown and Reah Janise Kauffman of the Earth Policy Institute for their permission to link to the contents and provide excerpts from Lester's book, and their assistance in assembling this article.
 | | Plan B: Rescuing a Planet under Stress
and a Civilization in Trouble by Lester R. Brown Founder and President of the
Earth Policy Institute Lester R. Brown biography |
| | | Table of contents | | - 1. A Planet Under Stress
| "Thus far, most of the environmental damage has been local: the death of the Aral Sea, the burning rainforests of Indonesia, the collapse of the Canadian cod fishery, the melting of the glaciers that supply Andean cities with water, the dust bowl forming in northwestern China, and the depletion of the U.S. Great Plains aquifer. But as these local environmental events expand and multiply, they will progressively weaken the global economy, bringing closer the day when the economic bubble will burst." | | I. A Civilization in Trouble | | | 2. Emerging Water Shortages | "Water scarcity, once a local issue, is now crossing international boundaries via the international grain trade. Countries that are pressing against the limits of their water supply typically satisfy the growing need of cities and industry by diverting irrigation water from agriculture, then importing grain to offset the loss of productive capacity. Because it takes 1,000 tons of water (1,000 cubic meters) to produce 1 ton of grain, importing grain is the most efficient way to import water." | | 3. Eroding Soils & Shrinking Grainland | "Now fast forward to a trip in 2002 by a U.N. team to assess the food situation in Lesotho, a tiny country imbedded within South Africa. Their finding was straightforward: 'Agriculture in Lesotho faces a catastrophic future; crop production is declining and could cease altogether over large tracts of the country if steps are not taken to reverse soil erosion, degradation, and the decline in soil fertility.' Michael Grunwald, writing in the Washington Post, reports that nearly half of the children under five in Lesotho are stunted physically. 'Many,' he says, 'are too weak to walk to school.'" | | | | 4. Rising Temperatures and Rising Seas | "As the earth's temperature rises, it alters the entire climate system, affecting all life on earth. It brings more intense heat waves, more destructive storms, lower crop yields, ice melting, and rising seas, and it shrinks the snowfields and glaciers that feed so many of the world's rivers. Among the industries most affected are agriculture, insurance, and tourism. Intense heat waves are taking a growing human toll. In 1995, 700 residents of Chicago died in a heat wave. In the summer of 1998, 100 Texans died in a prolonged heat spell.'" | | 5. Our Socially Divided World | "The differences between the world's most affluent and its poorest can be seen in the contrasts in nutrition, education, disease patterns, family size, and life expectancy. World Health Organization (WHO) data indicate that roughly 1.2 billion people are undernourished, underweight, and often hungry. At the same time, roughly 1.2 billion people are overnourished and overweight, most of them suffering from exercise deprivation. So while a billion people spend their time worrying whether they will eat, another billion worry about eating too much.'" | | 6. Plan A: Business as Usual | "In sum, no one knows exactly the extent of our excessive claims on the earth in this bubble economy. The most sophisticated effort to calculate this, the one by Mathis Wackernagel and his team, estimates that in 1999 our claims on the earth exceeded its regenerative capacity by 20 percent. If this overdraft is rising 1 percent a year, as seems likely, then by 2003 it was 24 percent. As we consume the earth's natural capital, the earth's capacity to sustain us is decreasing." | | | | II. The Response - Plan B | | | 7. Raising Water Productivity | "Water scarcity, a consequence of the sevenfold growth in the world economy over the last half-century, will be a defining condition of life for many in this new century. The simultaneous emergence of fast-growing water shortages in so many countries requires a wholly new approach to water policy, a shift from expanding supply to managing demand. Managing water scarcity will affect what we eat, how we dispose of waste, and even where we live." | | 8. Raising Land Productivity | "...there are no new varieties in the pipeline that can lead to similar quantum jumps in yields. Nearly two decades have passed since the first genetically modified crop varieties were released, yet biotechnologists have yet to produce a single variety of wheat, rice, or corn that can dramatically raise yields. Nor does it seem likely that they will, simply because plant breeders, using conventional breeding techniques, have already taken most of the obvious measures to get the big jumps in yields." | | 9. Cutting Carbon Emissions in Half | "Detailed studies by governments and by various environmental groups are beginning to reveal the potential for reducing carbon emissions while saving money in the process. With advances in wind turbine design and the evolution of the fuel cell, we now have the basic technologies needed to shift quickly from a carbon-based to a hydrogen-based energy economy. Cutting world carbon emissions in half by 2015 is entirely within range. Ambitious though this might seem, it is commensurate with the threat that climate change poses." | | | | 10. Responding to the Social Challenge | "As a species, our failure to control our numbers is taking a frightening toll. Slowing population growth is the key to eradicating poverty and its distressing symptoms, and, conversely, eradicating poverty is the key to slowing population growth. With time running out, the urgency of moving simultaneously on both fronts seems clear ... We now have the knowledge and the resources to reach these goals. In an increasingly integrated world, we also have a vested interest in doing so." | | III. The Only Option | | | 11. Plan B: Rising to the Challenge | "Plan B is the only viable option simply because Plan A, continuing with business as usual, offers an unacceptable outcome -- continuing environmental degradation and disruption and a bursting of the economic bubble. The warning signals are coming more frequently, whether they be collapsing fisheries, melting glaciers, or falling water tables. Thus far the wake-up calls have been local, but soon they could become global. Massive imports of grain by China -- and the rise in food prices that would likely follow -- could awake us from our lethargy." | | |
Lester R. Brown: A short biography Lester R. Brown, founder and President of Earth Policy Institute, has been described by the Washington Post as “one of the world’s most influential thinkers” and as “the guru of the global environmental movement” by The Telegraph of Calcutta. The author of numerous books, including Eco-Economy: Building an Economy for the Earth where he develops a vision for an environmentally sustainable economy, he helped pioneer the concept of environmentally sustainable development. His principal research areas include food, population, water, climate change, and renewable energy. The recipient of scores of awards and honorary degrees, he is widely sought as a speaker. In 1974, he founded Worldwatch Institute, of which he was President for its first 26 years. As President, he launched the World Watch Papers, the Worldwatch/Norton books, the annual State of the World report, the bimonthly magazine World Watch, the annual Vital Signs, and the Institute’s News Briefs. For relaxation, Lester runs. (Read a complete biography) 
Staff at the Earth Policy Institute includes (left to right) Millicent Johnson -- Manager of Publication Sales and Assistant Treasurer, Reah Janise Kauffman -- Co-founder and Vice President, Lester Brown -- President, Janet Larsen -- Research Associate, and Viviana Jimenez -- Research and Administrative Assistant. More reading, listening or viewing... |
