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| DownUnder | October 2004 |
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The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies A book review -- Introduction by Ian McPherson
Peak Oil threatens everything we take for granted. Richard Heinberg is doing something about it. The obvious connection between Global Warming and CO2 emissions is becoming harder and harder to refute, even by scientists funded by Big Oil. The U.N.-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (representing over 2,000 international climate scientists) has announced that "a discernible human influence" has impacted the global climate. The panel also warned that greenhouse gas emissions, unless controlled quickly, will warm the planet by 2-6 degrees Fahrenheit within the next century. Even the military-industrial complex is concerned. A recent Pentagon report concluded that the threat to the world posed by Global Warming is "greater than terrorism". The report also predicts, in graphic detail, that "major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a 'Siberian' climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread rioting will erupt across the world". As Lester Brown pointed out last month, rising temperatures and falling water tables (the symptoms of Global Warming) will rapidly lead to crop failures and water shortages -- and as a direct consequence -- food shortages and higher food prices, possibly as soon as 2005. But there is a third threat that will compound and magnify these two problems, and it is perhaps the most dangerous of all the threats facing humankind. That threat is oil depletion, often dubbed "Peak Oil".
Oil fuels industrial society -- and there is currently no practical replacement for it. We have allowed ourselves to become addicted to oil, to the point that its eventual demise could propel us back into the Stone Age. It is essential for transport, electricity, industrialised farming, the hi-tech industry, packaging, urban sprawl, roads and construction, mining, drugs and medical supplies -- even our basic water supply. If "Peak Oil" occurs within the next few years, as predicted by ASPO (the Association for the Study of Peak Oil), it will lead to the "beginning of the end" for industrial society -- and the implications are horrendous. Who is doing something about this, you might ask? Well, our governments offer lip service to energy reform, but continue to subsidise Big Oil, Coal and Nuclear, in blatant disregard of the threats and absolute regard for their short-term corporate contributions. Even in Australia, where our dams are near the lowest levels in recorded history, the Federal government's energy plan is dangerously reliant upon coal and natural gas, and it has so far failed to strike a deal with the States on a viable water plan for the future of our rivers and dams. But there is a group of individuals that is making a principled effort to bring the threat of Peak Oil to the attention of the public. A group of former Big Oil scientists, academics, environmentalists, researchers, merchant bankers and journalists, who all realise that oil depletion is a vital international issue. The importance of this group has been underlined, I believe, by the fact that Peak Oil has been chosen by Project Censored as one of the top censored media stories of 2003-2004. So who are the people in this Peak Oil group? I can only offer a shortlist, but they include scientists Colin Campbell, Kjell Aleklett, Jean Laherrere and Dale Allen Pfeiffer, researchers and journalists Matt Savinar, Julian Darley, Michael Ruppert and George Monbiot, and merchant banker and consultant to Dick Cheney's Energy Task Force, Matt Simmons. Richard Heinberg, academic and teacher, is also a key participant in this group, and is the focus of this article.
Why Richard? Because Richard has made an excellent effort to progress beyond the problem, research the available energy alternatives, and offer a number of practical solutions. His book, "The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies" is a wake-up call for those of us lucky enough to be living in reasonably affluent societies. It outlines the threats we face, reviews the currently available energy alternatives, and offers suggestions to help manage the transition to a future of far less plentiful energy. Below I have included the Foreword to "The Party's Over" by Dr. Colin Campbell, who is far more quaified than I to review the contents of Richard's book. Colin has a lifetime of experience as a petro-geologist, and is the founder of ASPO, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas. Click here to read Colin's fateful words. I recommend Richard's book "The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies" to NetNacs! readers without reservation. It is a vitally important work -- one of the most important I have read. It is in your interest to understand this complex issue, as viable solutions will only come from public pressure on government (both state and federal) and the mainstream media, and a community-wide drive towards energy optimisation and conservation. There is much to do to bring this to the attention of the public at large, and little time to do it. We must address Peak Oil and Global Warming now, if we are to avoid the truly shocking consequences of our inaction. Just ask the people of Florida, who are facing the destructive effects of the fourth hurricane in just a month... You can start by buying and reading Richard's book.
Richard Heinberg bio Richard is a journalist, educator, editor, lecturer, and musician. He has lectured widely, appearing on national radio and television in five countries. His essays have appeared in The Futurist, Intuition, The Sun, Brain/Mind Bulletin, Magical Blend, New Dawn, and elsewhere. His internet ezine, MuseLetter, was nominated in 1994 by Utne Reader for an Alternative Press Award and has been included in Utne's annual list of Best Alternative Newsletters. Richard is a core faculty member of the New College of California, where he teaches courses on Energy and Society, and Culture, Ecology and Sustainable Community. He is an Honored Member of Strathmore's Who's Who Registry, is listed in Marquis' Who's Who in the World, and is a member of the International Society for the Comparative Study of Civilizations. He is also an accomplished violinist, illustrator and book designer. Below I have listed some audio and video presentations featuring Richard Heinberg. If you would like to hear more, I would suggest visiting Richard's Interview page at the Global Public Media website.
Colin Campbell bio (excerpt from Michael C. Ruppert's article -- From The Wilderness) "Colin Campbell is both an academic and a businessman. Educated at Oxford and holding a Masters degree he has served as a geologist for Oxford University, Texaco, British Petroleum and Amoco (prior to the BP Amoco merger). He has served in executive positions with Shenandoah Oil, Amoco, Fina and was Chairman of the Nordic American Oil Company. He has served as a consultant on oil for the Bulgarian government as well as for Statoil, Mobil, Amerada, Total, Shell, Esso and for the firm Petroconsultants in Geneva. He is the Convener and Editor of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and a Trustee of the Oil Depletion Analysis Center in London. "As a member of The American Society of Petroleum Geologists, The Geological Society of London, and the Petroleum Institute of London he has delivered more than 35 lectures on oil depletion on three continents. His hosts have included universities, governments, and auto manufacturers. He has been published more than 150 times in the field including the 1997 book "The Coming Oil Crisis" (Multi-Science Publishing Co. & Petroconsultants). "It is well said that oil and politics are never far apart. Even the First World War, when oil was in its infancy, there was a certain focus on oil in, for instance, the German pressure in the Middle East. The French premier of the day commented, 'A drop of oil is worth a drop of blood.' Japan came into the Second World War for control of Indonesian oil. Hitler aimed at Baku on the Caspian with a desperate need for oil to support his war machine that still relied heavily on horse drawn transport.
"The invasion of Kuwait in the 2nd Gulf War had its origins in Kuwait’s action in producing above its agreed OPEC quota, which depressed the price of oil seriously reducing Iraq’s legitimate revenue. The United States, its own indigenous production having been in terminal decline for more than thirty years, has long explicitly stated that access to foreign oil is a vital national interest, justifying military intervention. Such a policy may have been implemented by the time these words come into print with apocalyptic consequences, or at best it will have been only narrowly averted by world opinion.
"This remarkable book therefore comes at an opportune time. "It is indeed a remarkable book, bringing deep insight into the state of a world that has come to rely on cheap oil-based energy: the fundamental driver of its prosperity and economic growth. Yet, as the author points out, oil is a fossil fuel, which means that it was formed in the geological past and is consequently subject to depletion. Accordingly, we started running out when we produced the first barrel. But running out is not the main issue as the tail end of production can drag on for a very long time. What matters much more is the date of peak and the onset of decline, which is likely to be a historic discontinuity as the growth of the past gives way to decline. It will affect all aspects of life as we know it, since oil is critical for transport, trade and agriculture. The world’s population has expanded six-fold during the first half of the Oil Age. What will it do during the second half? "The book opens with a discussion of energy in general, explaining in lucid terms, its characteristics and physical laws. It cannot be created or destroyed, merely transformed. Thus, plants grow by using the energy from the sun to convert nutrients and minerals in the soil into stalks and leaves, which in turn provide food for animals. The Laws of Entropy cover the essential balances that determine the success or failure of every environmental niche. That perception in turn has led to the subject of ecology in which scientists study the viability of the life systems of the very finite planet on which we live. As the early dust-bowls of America confirmed, every system has its limits: plants can’t grow if the soil has been blown away, or the natural aquifers drained dry. "Speaking of the boardroom, we learn how relatively recent is the corporate world in which we live. It arose out of the Industrial Revolution of the 18th Century when we learned to harness energy, first from mill streams, but later from coal, oil and gas to manufacture goods and products, which in turn led to surplus capital that stimulated growth, and new markets. The saturation of home markets led to overseas empires by Britain, France and Russia, followed today by US economic hegemony and globalism, driven by the dollar and backed by unprecedented military might. Capitalism itself has evolved through the development of unseen financial instruments dominated by debt and usury, as commercial banks lend money they neither have nor own in an almost virtual system built on confidence in perpetual growth. All of this has been achieved in the span of only a few generations: my father was born before the advent of the automobile, and long before the first tractor ploughed its furrows.
"But, as the book explains, empires fall as well as rise, and do so quickly, with collapse often being triggered by some ecological event. The Roman Empire crashed when the silver mines in Spain flooded on reaching the water table such that there was no money to pay the mercenary troops to defend the realm. The Rhine froze in 410 AD allowing Aleric the Goth to march south and sack Rome, bringing to an end an empire that had lasted a thousand years. "Whether we like it or not we live within a natural environment -- and we ignore its impacts at our peril. Did Darwin get it right when he proclaimed that evolution was achieved by the survival of the fittest? In fact, the record of life on Earth over 500 million years shows how species thrived when they adapted to environmental niches, but died out when the environment changed, leaving simpler forms to survive and later give branches that exploited new environments, only to die out in their turn. "The prime question posed by the book are precisely these: Will we be the first species to use our claimed intelligence to reverse when we discover that we have taken a wrong turn in the road? And can we recover simplicity and an equitable balance with the resources at our disposal? These questions touch on human diversity and migration. Some communities may learn to adapt better than others. Will they be able to exploit their advantage? Or will they rather be swamped by migrants from less adapted places?
"Just how close are we to these fundamental changes of direction? Economists can readily chart trends, but they are hopeless when it comes to anticipating discontinuities. The unexpected can happen. September 11th may have been just such a catalyst. As the days pass more questions are asked about who exactly was responsible and what motive did they have. Was it the work of an isolated group? or were there sinister forces at work even in the United States itself as some of the evidence suggests? The jury is out, but these events may have been symptomatic of unseen deeper tensions, tensions that are not unrelated to Middle East oil. "The jury is not out however on the issue of declining oil supply. Even the CEO of Exxon-Mobil confirms that less than half the oil needed to meet demand by 2010 can be supplied by present fields, and that as much as a trillion dollars would be needed to secure it. This is an oblique way of saying that demand cannot be met. In an equally oblique reference to the depletion of its principal asset, British Petroleum says that BP now stands for Beyond Petroleum. "The authorities and powers-that-be are reluctant to grasp the nettle and come out to say it the way it is, but this book rightly takes the imminent peak of oil supply as a given, before exploring the other sources of energy that may come in. It concludes that there are useful substitutes, although none will be as cheap or convenient as oil. "In a final chapter, the author makes some eminently sensible recommendations about how to face the social, economic, political, and individual lifestyle changes that are imposed upon us. The strength of these recommendations is that they aim at what people may do at a personal level in their own lives, especially in the United States. This seems eminently sensible, because however corrupted the democratic system has become, the politicians do ultimately have to depend on popular support. As personal attitudes change, so eventually will government policies have to change to meet them. The key word here is eventually, as there is much truth in the adage that generals always plan to fight the previous war, being the last to perceive the changed circumstances.
"The enormous contribution that the author has made in writing this book is that he gives us the ammunition with which to identify the new challenges and wrestle victory from defeat. It should be standard reading for governments everywhere -- and is nowhere more desperately needed than in the White House. It also deserves a place in every household bookshelf and in colleges and schools. If it can captures the interest and imagination of the youth, as it deserves to, perhaps, after all, we will all have a good future. The United States is known for the initiative, individuality, ingenuity and enthusiasm of its people. They can rise to the challenge once they know what it is. This book will tell them, and tell them in a very clear, unambiguous, well-argued and unemotional fashion.
Richard's new book: Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World
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See you all in the next issue! Ian McPherson | |||||||||||||||||
